The data for March 2025 clearly show that Nemesis is well into the aphelion leg of its 3,600-year lunar orbit around the Sun and is in a new reporting cycle, which we now refer to as “the plunge.”
As you will see below, there is a statistically significant uptick in all three primary fireball datasets in March 2025. This is consistent with our estimates from last month.
Looking forward to the rest of 2025, we expect this uptick trend to continue to August 2025. After that, significant and noticeable events will begin to occur, along with solar events.
March 2025 Fireballs
Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society is this dataset’s primary source for North America.
AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs
Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. This is a critical category in the dataset because these fireballs must travel a great distance to receive reports from across large geographic areas.
March 2025 reversed a steady three-year decline for this dataset period with a significant uptick. We call these types of fireballs “skimmers” because they have flat trajectories.
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AMS Huge Event Fireballs
It’s commonplace for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report it.
February returned to the baseline, but March 2025 offers a significant uptick above that up to the 2022 level for this dataset.
AMS Monthly Total Fireballs
The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset, and January 2025 brought up to second place for this dataset.
Again, there was another significant uptick, making this fireball trend three for three.
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Yearly AMS Fireball Totals
We see a five-year trend here, starting with 2020, where 2022 remains the highest year on record, followed by a steep reversal in 2023 and leveling out in 2024.
This dataset finally exceeded its 2011 level, but it took the first three months of 2025.
Earthquakes Since 1997
At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month, beginning in 1997. The USGS started capping the data in the last three months of the first Trump administration.
This March drop is odd, given the worldwide seismic and volcanic activity. As always, we’ll see what we see.
Monthly Earthquakes 1/2021 to 3/2025
The illustration below uses current USGS data and represents earthquakes of all magnitudes.
Please note that we’ve changed the reporting date ranges, and JP Jones changed the scale to help present the data more effectively.
Category: Signs