Signs 110 – Sunspot AR4366 : Your Own World USA

The Signs data for January 2026 is consistent with the expectations of JP Jones and me.  It indicates that Earth continues to transit the Nemesis Cloud and that we’ll likely see a gradual increase in trends through the first half of this year.

What really caught our attention is AR4366 (more precisely, Active Region 4366).  It is a large, magnetically complex sunspot group that rotated into view in late Jan 2026 and has been acting like a flare “factory.”

It rapidly grew into a large, magnetically complex region, driving the flare surge and capable of producing CMEs; at least one CME is specifically attributed to it (the Feb 01 X8.1 event).

We view AR4366 as a significant event in our Nemesis data tracking: although it is not a once-in-a-century event, it is clearly an outlier, substantially deviating from the rest of the data.

That said, let us examine the January 2026 figures and assess the significance of AR4366 for our Nemesis research.

January 2026 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society is the primary source for this dataset in North America.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. This is a critical category in the dataset because these fireballs must travel long distances to receive reports from across large geographic areas.  We refer to these types of fireballs as “skimmers” because they exhibit flat trajectories.

January 2026 ranked fourth in this dataset, with a clear statistical margin.  However, the margin is not significant and falls within our expectations for this period.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It’s common for Multistate/Country Fireballs to be reported as major events because a fireball is considered major when 100 or more eyewitnesses report it.  We call them “plungers” because they have a steep trajectory.

No large-event fireballs were reported during this period last year; thus, although this uptick follows 2022, 2023, and 2024, it remains significant.

AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset, and December 2025 showed a significant uptick, bringing it significantly ahead of the previous three years.

The monthly numbers for January 2026 show a steady increase trend dating back to 2023.  When we see statistically significant increases like this, we know we’re seeing a solid trend.

Yearly AMS Fireball Totals

The total number of fireballs for January 2026 is equal to the first half of the year for 2011.

I asked JP Jones about this, and he reviewed our data library and responded as follows.  “In 2011, AMS was just starting out as a repository for people to report fireballs. It wasn’t until after the whole 2012 hype that the reporting really started to have relative meaning. Now, January 2026 is double that of January 2018.”

Sunspot AR4366

AR4366 (more precisely, Active Region 4366) is a large, magnetically complex sunspot group that rotated into view in late Jan 2026 and has been acting like a flare “factory.”  The number (4366) is an identifier used to track that specific active region.

AR4366 rapidly grew into a large, magnetically complex region, driving the flare surge and capable of producing CMEs; at least one CME is specifically attributed to it (the Feb 01 X8.1 event).

NOAA/SWPC says AR4366 (Active Region) “emerged on Jan 30” (meaning that’s when it became the noteworthy new active region).  Earthsky described it as a “behemoth” and characterized it as nearly 10× wider than Earth.

 

For these reasons, we view AR4366 as a significant event for our Nemesis data tracking: although it is not a once-in-a-century event, it is clearly an outlier, unusually far from the rest of the data.

Forecasters expect it to keep producing more M- and possibly X-class flares in the coming days as it rotates into a more Earth-facing position.  Solar flare activity over the last week has been very high, and AR4366 has produced approximately 8 X-class flares since it emerged on Jan 30, 2026, as reported by the following sources:

1. 2026-02-01 10:02 UTC — X6.6 (SDO/AIA/SolarHam.com)
2. 2026-02-01 23:44 UTC — X8.1 (NOAA/SWPC)
3. 2026-02-02 00:15 UTC — X1.5 (listed by EarthSky)
4. 2026-02-02 00:31 UTC — X2.8 (listed by EarthSky)
5. 2026-02-02 00:42 UTC — X2.9 (listed by EarthSky)
6. 2026-02-02 07:39 UTC — X1.7 (listed by EarthSky)
7. 2026-02-02 14:18 UTC — X1.5 (NOAA/SWPC)
8. 2026-02-04 ~12:18 UTC (peak) — X4.2 (reported by The Watchers; “impulsive” event) An “impulsive” event means the flare’s energy release ramps up and peaks very quickly.

NOAA/SWPC reports the Feb 01 X8.1 flare was “accompanied by a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)” with possible glancing influences near Earth on Feb 05–06.  NOAA is forecasting that the most likely Earth impacts are a minor geomagnetic storm (G1) around Feb 5 (possibly into Feb 6), which mainly means enhanced aurora chances at higher latitudes and modest, usually manageable effects on some tech systems.

“8 X‑class flares in one week” is rare—it tends to happen only during short, extreme bursts near solar maximum, not in an average week.  So, in practical terms, we’re not “approaching” maximum so much as living in it—flare/CME outbreaks like AR4366 are exactly the kind of clustered activity you expect during the maximum phase.

From now on, we should expect a general step-down from frequent M/X flares toward fewer high-class flares, plus fewer severe geomagnetic storm periods overall with occasional standout events, which brings us to the crux of the issue.

Given that Nemesis is now in the aphelion leg of its orbit around our sun, will we see a general step-down in frequent M/X flares as expected, or will we see a different trend, with more of the same or even higher levels?

We will continue monitoring solar activity going forward and report noteworthy events as they occur in future Signs articles.

USGS vs. VOLCANO DISCOVERY 2026 YTD

Volcano Discovery is a recognized news portal for earthquake and volcano updates. Volcano Discovery is an adventure tour operator that conducts geotours and volcano tours worldwide, in collaboration with trusted partners.   We report data from the USGS and Volcano Discovery, enabling you to view the suppression of data that our government has been conducting for several years.

According to Volcano Discovery data, January 2026 is marked by substantial activity.   Nonetheless, the USGS, with its data-capping strategy, went in the opposite direction.

In January 2026, there were 52,825 earthquakes with magnitudes up to 6.6.   Although the numbers were higher for December 2025, the fact that we saw ten quakes above magnitude 6 for January 2026 is significant.

Tags: fireballs, flares, Nemesis

Category: Signs, Space